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[买入评级]BANKING SECTOR:AUGUST M2 YOY GROWTH MISSED EXPECTATION

作者:ihpa.net 发布时间:2018-02-13

 
August M2 YoY growth missed expectations. The 8.9% YoY growth of M2 in August 2017 missed expectations andcontinued to hit new historic lows. The decrease in M2 YoY growth was mainly due to declining leverage in the financialsystem in our view. The lower level of M2 YoY growth compared with the past is expected to become the new norm and itscorrelation with the economy is also decreasing. The disparity between M2 YoY growth and M1 YoY growth contractedMoM.
New total social financing ("TSF") and new RMB loans both increased YoY in August. The 1.3% YoY growth of newTSF in August 2017 was driven by the increase of new RMB loans to real economy, new trust loans and newundiscounted bills. In August 2017; new RMB loans continued to stay at a good level, which showed that the demand forfunds of real economy was still good. Medium- to long-term RMB loans increased by 55.8% YoY and decreased by 8.6%QoQ. Of which, personal medium- to long-term RMB loans decreased by 15.4% YoY and 1.6% QoQ; non-financialcorporate medium- to long-term RMB loans increased by RMB 37.2 mn YoY and decreased by 16.0% QoQ. The flat QoQchange for personal medium- to long-term RMB loans shows that residential demand remained stable, and the QoQdecline of non-financial corporate medium- to long-term RMB loans shows that investment demand of enterprisesweakened. The proportion of new RMB loans to real economy in new TSF climbed 2.7 pts QoQ to 77.7% in August 2017.
Our views on liquidity: In August 2017, the PBOC extended RMB 34.0 bn in loans via standing lending facility, RMB400.0 bn in loans via medium-term lending facility and RMB 34.7 bn in loans via pledged supplementary lending. The CPIfor August 2017 was 1.8%. In the “China Monetary Policy Report, The Second Quarter 2017”, the PBOC expressed that itwould continue to adopt prudent and neutral monetary policies and deal with the relationship among the stabilization ofeconomic growth, the adjustment of economic structure and the control of total monetary amount, to create a neutral andmoderate monetary and financial environment for supply-side reform. Under the background that economy stabilization isunderway, in order to control economic exposure, keep the RMB foreign exchange rate stable and control the capitaloutflow, we expect that China’s liquidity conditions will be slightly tight for the rest of 2017.
Sector views: We expect that the earnings improvement and asset quality stabilization of mainland Chinese banks willboost their valuations. We maintain “Outperform” rating for the banking sector. Our top pick is CMB (03968 HK), our ratingis "Buy" and TP for the Company is "HKD 29.20".

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