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[买入评级]GOLDWIND SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY(002202/02208.HK):PRIMARY

作者:ihpa.net 发布时间:2018-01-11

 


Action
As an industry leader, we expect Goldwind to benefit as the windpower sector starts a new cycle; with both its valuation andearnings likely to recover.
Reasoning
We expect China to add 25GW wind power installation in 2018 vs.19GW in 2017, due to: 1) three provinces relaxing installationrestrictions; and, 2) traditional IPPs expanding into new energyinvestment; wind power is also included in power trading ofdistributed energy and poverty alleviation projects. Distributed windpower has also achieved grid parity. Without limitations set by tariffsand curtailment, wind has started a new cycle.
We expect WTG shipments to recover to 8.5GW (+35% YoY, 7.5GWfor external sales) with market share increasing to 34% in 2018. Bigdata platform, advanced operating systems and operating experiencein the distributed wind projects of Tianrun (Goldwind subsidiary) willhelp it to gain more market share in distributed power markets.
Although the WTG bidding price fell 7%/10% in 2016/17, this isapproaching the cost of tier-2 manufacturers (Rmb3,700-3,800/KW)。Thus the GM of WTG business will face less pressure, better thanmarket consensus.
Major difference from market consensus: the market expects Chinainstallations to only recover when thermal utilization rebounds; butwe expect wind power demand to recover earlier: 1) demand-sidereform of power sector capped power output of thermal units;2) electricity demand will continue to beat expectations. and, 3) newwind power installation will diversify in 2018 similar to solar power.
Catalysts: monthly installation data; change in bidding results;distributed wind power projects start operation.
Earnings forecast and valuation
Based on a positive view of China’s new installations, we raise2017/18 EPS by 2%/15% to Rmb0.89/1.09 and set 2019 at Rmb1.23.
Maintain BUY on Goldwind-H and lift target price by 14% toHK$17.40 based on SOTP valuation. Upgrade Goldwind-A to BUY andlift target price by 57% to Rmb23.90 based on 22x 2018e P/E.
Risks
WTG price decreases faster; tariffs decrease further.

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