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[增持评级]BANKING SECTOR:OCTOBER M2 YOY GROWTH MISSED EXPECTATIO

作者:ihpa.net 发布时间:2017-11-28

 
October M2 YoY growth missed expectations. The 8.8% YoY growth of M2 in October 2017 missed expectations anddeclined MoM. The disparity between M2 YoY growth and M1 YoY growth continued to contract MoM. The MoM decreasein M2 YoY growth was possibly due to the increase of fiscal deposits and financial deleveraging. Considering the lowerbase effect, we expect YoY growth of M2 to recover mildly in the rest of 2017.
New total social financing ("TSF") and new RMB loans both increased YoY in October. The 17.3% YoY growth ofnew TSF in October 2017 was driven by the increase of new RMB loans to real economy, new entrusted loans, new trustloans, new undiscounted bills, new corporate bonds and new equity financing. New RMB loans significantly decreasedMoM, primarily attributable to seasonal factors, but still increased by 1.8% YoY, which we think still remained at a goodlevel and showed that the demand for funds of real economy was still good. Medium-term and long-term RMB loansincreased by 8.1% YoY and decreased by 38.1% MoM. Of which, personal medium-term and long-term RMB loansdecreased by 24.2% YoY and 177.5% MoM; non-financial corporate medium-term and long-term RMB loans increased by225.0 % YoY and decreased by 53.0% MoM. The YoY decrease in personal medium-term and long-term RMB loansshows that residential demand has possibly been mitigated given the government's stringent property market regulations,but the YoY increase in non-financial corporate medium-term and long-term RMB loans implies that the demand for fundsof real economy was not weak. The proportion of new RMB loans to real economy in new TSF was 63.8% in October2017.
Our views on liquidity: In October 2017, the PBOC extended RMB 25.0 bn in loans via standing lending facility, RMB498.0 bn in loans via medium-term lending facility and RMB 38.4 bn in loans via pledged supplementary lending. The CPIfor October 2017 was 1.9%. In the “China Monetary Policy Report, The Second Quarter 2017”, Nickel protoxide powderBoron carbide powderTitanium Nitride powderNickel protoxide powder, the PBOC expressed thatit would continue to adopt prudent and neutral monetary policies and deal with the stabilization of economic growth, theadjustment of economic structure and the control of total monetary amount, to create a neutral and moderate monetaryand financial environment for supply-side reform. Under the background that economic stabilization is underway, in orderto control economic exposure, keep the RMB foreign exchange rate stable and control capital outflow, we expect thatChina’s liquidity conditions will be slightly tight for the rest of 2017.
Sector views: We expect that earnings improvement and asset quality stabilization of mainland Chinese banks will boosttheir valuations. We maintain “Outperform” rating for the banking sector. Our top pick is BOCHK (02388 HK); our rating is"Buy" and TP for the Company is HKD47.52.

□ .R.i.c.h.a.r.d. .C.a.o  .国.泰.君.安.国.际.控.股.有.限.公.司

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